The frog boil metaphor illustrates how it's easy to miss small changes that build up over time until it's too late. The scenario, as told, is that of a poor frog who would leap away from hot water but, if put into cooler water that is gradually warmed, won't respond in time to getting boiled.

As a metaphor, it describes a powerful and pernicious shortcoming in how we perceive the world. A student kitchen that gets messy mug-by-mug, a business with gradually slowing sales, a river that is slowly polluted, a road that gets busier each day, a bay that sees fewer fish each year, content that drifts, cancer that slowly spreads, a story or behaviour that becomes normal, a website that gets slower feature-by-feature, or a climate that slowly warms are all cases where we may not be happy where we end up, but we didn't notice how we got there.

It's hard to respond to gradual change, especially when it spans generations. Jared Diamond called it out as a potential fate of the Easter Islanders and how they could have cut down the last tree. One barnacle is nothing, but many barnacles can cause significant headaches for big ships.

Fortunately, there's a flip side. Many, many things are getting better without us realising. Small positive changes, such as in attitudes, education, or healthcare, add up over time—the Destiny Instinct can mislead us. Fast and slow layers make a system, like a forest, more robust. Getting one percent better each day leads to a 37x improvement in a year. And enough molehills can make a mountain.

What a frog does, in this case, is not, apparently, true—don't try it—it's much better as a metaphor, not an experiment.

The frog boil metaphor

Heat islands are urban areas that can have higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas with more greenery.

Heat islands are caused by a number of factors including:

the types of materials we use in cities for buildings, pavement, and roads that can absorb more heat than natural surfaces such as leaves or grass

human additions to the sun's heat such as air conditioning, vehicles, cooking, or machinery

that shapes of our cities that may restrict airflow to carry heat away

the mass of our buildings that can absorb heat and release it gradually, even through the night

More natural, often rural areas with greenery may reflect more light, release moisture and provide shade.

There are ways to help reduce the effect of heat islands such as planting more urban trees, or using green roofs.

Deciduous trees have the handy feature of providing shade for a house in the summer while letting light through in the winter when the leaves fall.

A study using 2015 data found that "doubling tree cover in European cities could cut the number of heat-related deaths during summer months by nearly 40 per cent."

Heat islands

While talking on a walk with our 9-year old he suddenly said "Well, what does it matter anyway? We've messed up our planet and it's filling up with plastic." This is a mighty burden to bear for a 9-year old. With increased awareness and education across society, climate anxiety is real. One good thing however, is that one way to alleviate climate anxiety is to be taking action, and fortunately action is also what the planet needs too.

One small action I am taking is a new commitment to plant 5 trees every month for every person who is supporting me on Patreon at any level. So a small contribution could also see you plant 60 trees a year. Together I think we can make a difference. Plant trees and support Sketchplanations on Patreon.

Update 28/2/21: Today I planted 370 trees with awesome Eden Reforestation Projects 🙌 🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳

Climate anxiety

Perhaps the most important curve of our times, Charles Keeling’s  curve shows the change in concentration of CO2 in the air with measurements taken every year for over 60 years. Taken at the top of Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii because of its high altitude and relative isolation in the Pacific, Charles Keeling’s measurements show that the monthly average CO2 concentration in the air has risen from around 310 ppm (parts per million) to around 410 ppm in 2020. As a greenhouse gas this change in CO2 concentration is one of the critical causes of climate change.

The concentration varies seasonally as plants bloom in Spring and Summer reducing the concentration from its high around May as the CO2 has built up over the Norhern Hemisphere Winter.

The Scripps CO2 program is now overseen by Charles’ son Ralph Keeling.

Sketchplanations tagged with climate-change