Writing this in the middle(?) of the coronavirus outbreak I thought it might be interesting to share these charts, created from the simulations in the excellent Washington Post article “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’” by Harry Stevens.

The charts represent different strategies for containment and mitigation of the effects of a contagious outbreak.

Trying to quarantine an area — where it is difficult to attain complete quarantine — delays the effect of an outbreak somewhat, but once released the impact is still significant with a potentially high peak of cases.

Social-distancing — staying away from each other to reduce the chance of infecting others if you are infected and minimise the chance of infecting yourself — in both the bottom scenarios in the simulation manages to both delay the onset of an outbreak and reduce the peak. Not included in this simple simulation is that reducing peak infections in particular helps the healthcare system effectively treat and care for those who are infected, and look after its healthcare workers. When healthcare is not overwhelmed this further minimises both the spread of a disease and fatality rate.

Read the article, run your own simulations, and maybe consider supporting the Washington Post, here: “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to 'flatten the curve’”.

Disclaimer: I am not a public health professional. These charts are from my results of the simulations in the article and the simulations represent a simplified, though instructive I think, view of an outbreak and these containment methods.

Flatten the curve of an outbreak

In these times, and to be honest most times, washing your hands well is one of the very best things you can do to keep yourself healthy and free from infections.

You should use soap if you have it, it should take about 20s, and if you follow these steps you’ll cover pretty much all of the different parts of your hands. In standard, cursory handwashing it’s very easy to miss what ought to be obvious places to clean like your fingertips. Then try to avoid touching taps and door handles on your way out of public places.

I find doing these steps takes about 20s, but to make sure you could also try singing a song segment you like. NPR has some suggestions: Keep flu at bay with a song.

Some other hygiene sketches to bear in mind:

Sneezes and coughs are powerful things — a sneeze can travel up to 8m. So always make sure you do your…

Dry your hands with only one towel. And as a basic rule…

The handwashing guidance is from the wonderful NHS.

How to wash your hands

Chindogu are inventions that are not really useful yet are not completely without use. They make sense, but you’d never use them. They are also, as a result, often really funny.

This chindogu article gives some great examples while also sharing the 10 tenets of what makes chindogu, chindogu. Things like: there must be the spirit of anarchy —  they represent freedom of thought and action. And they must exist — just the idea isn’t enough; they must be made.

Apparently, the selfie stick was invented as chindogu but failed as people evidently actually found it useful — though you can still see why it might have started as chindogu.

Also see: affordance, forcing function, and more genius from the Japanese: Tsundoku

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Chindogu